Good morning. The headline above and the piece below are exactly what I published here almost eleven months ago, on August 17th of last year. The argument remains the same.
Last night we saw something we all should have at least somewhat expected. There have been plenty of signs, abundant video evidence, that Joe Biden has become prone these last two or three years to many more off days than we should accept from our president. For whatever combination of reasons, it seems most Democrats didn't expect it. From the speed of the reaction of horror and upset, however, it's obvious that many leading Democrats feared it even if they’d convinced themselves not to expect it; there is some confirmation bias now at work even amongst the president's fans.
A few hot takes:
-Trump may have been lying 80% of the time, but his demeanor, for him, was relatively calm. He didn't lose his mind or act like an obnoxious ass (mostly). And he looked like a living person, as opposed to Biden…
-Biden moved stiffly as he often does, like an animatronic president at the show at Disney World. He also looked ashen, which is hard to understand given that his team could have put as much makeup on him as they wanted. Imagine what he looked like without the makeup they did, in fact, put on him.
-The loose jaw, the vague gaze were cadaver like. Not the vibe you want from your standard bearer.
-A presidential debate featured an episode of trash talking about golf handicaps. I could see the argument forming, hoped it would ebb away, then watched in disgust/amazement as it actually occurred. And yes, it was Donald Trump who ended it by saying “let's not act like children."
Here’s my constructive thought: Biden did so poorly and the need for him to stand down is now so clear to everyone that I believe Biden will, in fact, stand down. And the sooner he does so, the more time the delegates to the Democratic convention will have to consider the alternatives. The slate of alternatives includes some very good options including governors Gretchen Whitmer, Roy Cooper, Wes Moore, and others. Kamala Harris, of course, would also figure prominently in the picture. She did an OUTSTANDING job after the debate in a CNN interview with Anderson Cooper defending Biden and the administration, as she must. Kamala should not be underestimated.
So here's my message to those who, above all, dread another four years with Donald Trump: “The darkest hour is just before the dawn." It is my sincere hope that last night was the darkest hour. This morning starts the dawn. There is reason for hope.
Here's the piece from August 17th, 2023.
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Maybe I'm cranky. It's summer and it's been summer and summer is dragging. They call these the dog days of summer for a reason. Maybe that's why I feel like a scratchy dog. I'm aging day by day, I'm waiting for the cool breezes of autumn. If what I'm about to write sounds harsh, I apologize.
Joe Biden needs to drop out of the race. The country is doing pretty well, and I know some of you love President Biden. But not nearly enough of you to reelect him. The general public sentiment is one of dismay at the thought of Biden as national standard bearer once again.
Almost all of us dread a Trump-Biden rematch. Trump is a narcissist and a megalomaniac. He's going to do this because of who he is and how he's wired. There won't be any talking him out of it. What's Biden's excuse? I've started to think he may be the most selfish president in American history. You can try to pretty things up, but underneath it all, only selfishness explains his refusal to stand down and let the Democratic Party nominate a candidate ready for the moment, ready for the future. The fact that he is running neck and neck in the polls with Attila the Hun is no great shakes. People are either with Attila or against Attila, so when you're running against Attila, all the people who aren't with Attila have to be with you. Which is to say a cut-out figure of Biden would do just as well as the real thing, maybe better. It would make fewer embarrassing mistakes. This probably accounts for the popularity of the Dark Brandon meme; it's a static figure projecting mysterious power and a vague sense of hipness. The real Joe Biden accomplishes neither. If you haven't seen it, here it is.
I am in the grips of presidential campaign claustrophobia, trapped in a room with two candidates that I don't want and who won't go away. In (just) one way, I'm more sympathetic to Trump. Even according to the most recent post-indictment polls, he's got a third of the country ready to follow him off a cliff if necessary. His constituency is avid and won't die. Biden can't make the same claim or even come close.
Biden has the second highest net negatives at this point of his presidency of anyone in recorded history, which is to say dating back to Harry Truman. The only exception is Jimmy Carter. There were many who preferred Ted Kennedy to Jimmy Carter in the Democratic contest of 1980. Carter, however, was in his mid-50s. He was in the prime of his political career however dismal it may have been at that moment. He was at the peak of his faculties. Biden, by contrast, is past his prime in every measurable way. He merits respect, affection, and admiration from many of the rank and file, but there is no level of enthusiasm.
Why can't we just have the wide open Democratic nomination battle that we ought to have? Why are we stuck with a guy who has trouble making his way along ceremonial greeting lines without taking a wrong turn or looking disoriented? Why can't we have someone whose staff won't dread his or her public utterances and consequently limit his or her availability. Is this asking so much?
The President is soon turning 81. I remember around twenty years ago meeting his dad who was probably around 81 at that time. Joe Biden was showing his dad around some event and introducing him to people along the way. His dad was a charming guy who seemed to have some little jokes, some old chestnuts, that he relied on with just about everyone. He was a bit unsteady on his feet, and while he was coherent for purposes of being introduced around by his senator son, there was nothing about him that would persuade you he could lead the greatest, most powerful nation on earth — or that he would ever think he could. He just wasn't at that point in his life anymore. The comparison between his dad at that age and the president today is, to me, uncanny. Joe Biden should realize that as nature has run its course, he has become a close approximation of the wonderful man that his dad was at approximately the same age. A great older guy, but not someone who should be asking voters to entrust him with decisions of unimaginably momentous size and scope.
If Trump doesn't recover from his current drop in the polls but gets nominated, Biden would almost surely beat him. So would the aforementioned Biden cut-out. So would I. I don't know you, but probably so would you. Needless to say, so would another Democrat who actually was nominated as the result of a vigorous presidential primary campaign. In other words, if Trump doesn't recover from his current drop, Biden doesn't provide any incremental benefit.
On the other hand, if Trump recovers from this drop, or fails to recover and in fact loses the nomination to one of his opponents who haven't been indicted multiple times, Democrats will want to have a stronger candidate than Biden. They will want someone who can stand on a debate stage and make sense, make a strong case for continued Democratic leadership. They will want someone who can energize voters at rallies across the country by saying something other than "We're the United States of America," Biden's favorite line.
Because he is beloved within most of the party, I doubt that he will be forced out. But there's got to be a better reason to run for president again than the fact that no one is forcing you not to. Mr. President, a career of good service has run its course. No one really wants you to run again. It's time to step aside. Not doing so is just selfish.
I was very surprised (in a bad way) by Biden's performance. I had expected something like the State of the Union. But this was such a lower level of intensity. I don't understand. Today on the View, Joy showed a clip of Biden addressing people in a watch party afterwards. Now THAT was the Biden I expected, much more energized. Did someone pass him in the hall at CNN and drug him with a downer? I just don't get it.
Matt, I could not agree more. I have been 'ride or die' Biden. Last night was a game changer. It was an indicator of what is in store for the next four years, and honestly, I'm not sure which of those candidates would be worse for the country. We need a leader. And that's from someone who is a diehard Biden supporter. He's done. Step aside and give this country a fighting chance . . .