I wrote this, below, on October 15th, 2023, fifty-one weeks ago. It neatly foretells the outlines of much that has ensued this past year. I don't share it to boast of my special powers of prediction or analysis. I share it because, as I look back at it, I'm amazed at how easy all of this was to see - to know - for anyone who'd been watching how the world reacts when the Jewish state defends itself.
So, if I've been surprised this past year, it's not been the surprise of the unimaginable but rather surprise at the confirmation of my worst fears.
Here are two, related lessons I take with me as we cross the threshold of this dark one year anniversary.
First, full-throated support for Israel has a half-life of around a week and diminishes precipitously as soon as Israel’s military does anything - anything. The world tells Israel it has a right to defend itself, but then when it starts to defend itself, the world immediately says “whoa!" Regardless of who is in the White House or who controls Congress, support for Israel will always be hedged by immediate and persistent admonitions to slow down, to relent - even though Israel is perhaps our strongest ally, and even though they are fighting the terroristic nation who is perhaps our greatest military concern - Iran.
The welfare of Israel and Judaism is not the primary concern of anyone other than Israel and the Jewish people. The Holocaust proved that, and it's part of why in 1948 the Jewish state came to exist. This past year has proven that the underlying dynamic remains true and that the state, therefore, remains a necessity. As a Jew, my concern for the approval of the world does not extend beyond what's practically necessary for Israel to continue to defend itself effectively and survive. This includes an insistence upon conducting war as morally as possible, but we should not expect an anti-Zionist, anti-Semitic world (see, for endless examples, the modern history of the UN) to morally approve of anything Israel does. Israel must continue to hold itself to high standards; validation or lack thereof must come from Israel’s own laws, its own collective conscience, not the inauthentic judgments of the world.
Second, and related, America’s support for Israel, just like America’s support for anything, will remain strong, or not, for reasons that are political - not moral. There is a long list of moral causes around the world that the United States could have intervened in over the decades since we emerged as the world's preeminent power. We only ever help, however, when there is a political case to be made and when that political case prevails. Jews know this. As the Holocaust unfolded, there was certainly a moral case to be made to do something. And that case was being made. But nativist and isolationist sentiment in the United States was such that FDR failed to act in any targeted way to either stem the decimation of the Jewish people in Europe or allow more Jews to enter the United States. There was a moral case for action, but it was trumped by politics. And that's just one example; there have been many over the years and around the world.
Given this truism, I've looked at some numbers. In the seven swing states in this year's presidential election, there are decisively more Jews than Muslims in Pennsylvania and Nevada; there are decisively more Muslims in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin; and there are marginally more Jews in Georgia and Arizona. Which is to say that when considering the population groups for whom this issue is more likely to be a primary concern, the issue is close to a political wash in the most politically important states. We shouldn't be surprised, therefore, when either ticket hedges its support for Israel's actions in one way or another.
(Yes, I'm making assumptions about the likely political sentiments of people based on their religion, but those assumptions are consistently validated in polling).
I will share a more personal reflection later this week.
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My piece from October 15, 2023
What To Expect This Week
And what to NOTICE or ASK
Matt Lieberman
Oct 15
Israel will commence a ground incursion into Gaza to destroy Hamas’s military infrastructure and capabilities and to capture or kill its leadership and fighters.
Criticism and condemnation will grow around the world from anti-Israel, anti-semitic groups and individuals.
NOTICE that this criticism already started! Within a day of Hamas's mass butchery! In other words, many of the people leading and joining in these protests against the ground incursion have already shown their anti Israel anti-Semitic colors by cheering and defending Hamas's mind-bogglingly awful actions. Conclusion: their issue isn't so much with the ground incursion as it is, at a more basic level, with the Jewish state of Israel.
Israel wants to give civilians every opportunity to leave the area that will come under fire and has therefore urged the evacuation of Northern Gaza. This would seem to be a humane gesture by Israel, to call their shots with this extreme level of transparency to give people a chance to flee. Instead, criticism grows against Israel for causing a potential humanitarian crisis in southern Gaza.
NOTICE these voices expressing alarm at the potential humanitarian crisis aren't suggesting that Israel go ahead and commence their military action with all those Gazan civilians still in the north; they're suggesting that Israel simply stop and do nothing.
ASK if a murderous entity crossed over our American border, killed 42,600 Americans and kidnapped 5,325 of us, what would we do to that entity? (These numbers are adjusted to indicate the proportionate impact on America's larger population that a much smaller Israeli population has incurred in the last week). The answer does not include stopping and letting the enemy remain sufficiently intact to simply retool itself. America wouldn't do this. No country would. But you will hear voices expecting Israel to cease and desist.
NOTICE this is in fact exactly what Israel did just two years ago when Hamas fired over 3,000 rockets indiscriminately into Israeli civilian areas. Israel retaliated by air but did not go in on the ground to uproot the Hamas infrastructure and capability. Israel showed restraint. And it has the blood of thousands of its own citizens to show for it. That is how Israel's restraint was rewarded. It cannot show such restraint again; no other nation would; nor would any other nation be expected to.
NOTICE Israel has started allowing water into Southern Gaza. This should incentivize civilians who have not yet departed the north to do so. I expect Israel to continue easing its siege to the benefit of citizens who have heeded the warning to head south.
NOTICE Hamas doesn't want civilians to head south; in fact, they are acting in a number of ways to block passage to the south. In essence, they don't want to lose their human shields in the north.
ASK yourself, when you see someone post something critical of Israel, have they posted things critical of other countries? You can check. You can scroll back through their history and see. In recent years, Syria slaughtered over 400,000 of its own citizens and displaced many million. Were the Israel critics upset enough about this to post something? Iran and China have ruthlessly repressed and executed their own citizens. Any posts? You may find that these Israel critics only seem worked up enough about human rights to post something when Israel is involved. Never mind that Israel's actions now are taken in reaction to specific aggression and in the context of self-defense. Other countries just go ahead and execute their own people in frightening numbers. Hamas itself does this, to the people of Gaza, if they disagree with something the authoritarian regime has insisted upon or imposed. But this doesn't register enough for these Israel haters to stage a protest or even put up a post.
ASK yourself why they criticize Israel so passionately but not anyone else.
And finally, NOTICE that Israel does more than any country in the world to avoid civilian casualties, to warn civilians to get out of harm's way — against an enemy that does more than any country in the world to use its own civilians as human shields.
It's going to be a rough week. I strongly hope for a maximum of success for Israel’s efforts and a minimum of civilian casualties. I know that Israel's military shares these hopes. And I know that Hamas hopes for the opposite.
Wow. You pretty much saw into the future. Wow.